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Caretaking Democratization

A review by T. F. Rhoden of Renaud Egreteau’s Caretaking Democratization: The Military and Political Change in Myanmar

Why have the Burmese armed forces withdrawn from direct control of the state? Why have they allowed a “hybrid” regime, with a representatively elected government, to form? What moniker does one use for this new, neither fully authoritarian, nor fully democratic, Myanmar? Indeed, what spurred the recent deepening of political liberalization and widening of democratization across the nation. And why now and not decades earlier?

These are some of the questions which imbue Renaud Egreteau’s excellent Caretaking Democratization: The Military and Political Change in Myanmar (Oxford University Press, 2016) with a saliency and urgency for those wishing to apprehend Myanmar today.

In what this reviewer considers to be the most important publication of the decade on the subject of Myanmar’s democratization, Egreteau argues that the “transition has been driven from above, by ruling Burmese elites—especially military ones—in a clear position of strength since the early 2000s.” By initiating a “well-thought-out”, “caretaking”, and “pacted” transition since 2011, “the Tatmadaw leadership merely chose to move down a notch on the scale of political intervention.” This analysis reminds us that there is more here than some naïve romanticizing of “Burma’s Spring.”

The decades of military authoritarianism are over. The sordid “military junta” as a regime type has disbanded. The current government, particularly after the 2015 general election, is the most democratically representative since independence. But, the Burmese armed forces’ praetorian commitment to political intervention—some of these guaranteed by the 2008 Constitution—demonstrates that the military will continue to have a sizable effect on future developments. Egreteau is keen to remind us that the science of comparative politics is uncertain about the endpoint to this “transition.”

The introduction and initial chapter lay out the focus of the study, one that centers the years from 2010 to 2015 as instrumental. This positions the book as an indispensable resource for comparativists and international affairs scholars in understanding early-stage democratization. Despite the particularity, and peculiarity, of this “sui generis case”, Egreteau frequently utilizes other postcolonial examples to draw out similarities and differences where relevant. Core to the argument of the “planned withdrawal” of the Burmese military from the highest reigns of governmental power were those machinations of “inter-elite negotiations” which centered upon a “pact” between three specific segments of Myanmar’s polity. This “top-down” approach included soldier-turned-civilian leaders from the ancien régime, well-known and well-liked leaders from the pro-democracy opposition—foremost amongst them, Aung Sang Suu Kyi and elites of the National League for Democracy (NLD) political party—and leaders of politicized or armed ethnic groups, particularly those who appeared open to cease-fire negotiations.

Egreteau points out that incorporating… [click here to continue to read full text]

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*Originally published in Tea Circle Oxford by T. F. Rhoden; image credit for the top of this re-post goes to awesome Randall Collis. Unless otherwise stated, all posts on this website are under Creative Commons licence. 

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Migrant Labor Activists Plan for the 2020 Election in Myanmar

Over two million Burmese migrants in Thailand were left out of Myanmar’s 2015 election. Will it happen again in 2020 ?

The Union Election Commission of Myanmar reported turnout at 69 percent for the historic 2015 elections within the country. Outside of the country, the story was very different. Fewer than 20,000 external voters engaged their political right at the ballot box abroad. This amounted to less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the over four million people who compose the Burmese diaspora.

“We labor migrants and refugees were simply considered not important enough by the previous Burmese government to be involved in the elections last year,” says a Bangkok-based migrant and labor rights activist from Myanmar, who wishes to stay anonymous due to her illegal status in Thailand.

Burmese migrant activists have begun meeting to plan for the next election four years away. They want a much higher rate of turnout for absentee voters for the next election.

A recent example of this foresight was an open letter from a network of migrant associations operating in Bangkok to Aung San Suu Kyi, state counselor of Myanmar. The open letter was meant to coincide with her official June 2016 visit to Thailand. Though the majority of recommendations were about more immediate concerns of migrant labor rights for Burmese citizens who make the trek to Thailand for work, the letter also included important recommendations for an extension of absentee suffrage. Migrant associations specifically requested guarantees for inclusion in future national elections.

Suu Kyi did not publicly address the absentee suffrage challenge during her visit like she did other migrant labor problems. Yet the fact that politically active Burmese in Thailand included this in their letter already demonstrates their concern with “not losing this opportunity again” for potential external votes to be counted in the next general election.

Lowering Costs for Migrants

In terms of Myanmar’s… [click here to continue to read full text]

*Originally published in The Diplomat by T. F. Rhoden; image-photo credit for this post via Channel NewsAsia. Unless otherwise stated, all posts on this website are under Creative Commons licence. 

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Myanmar opens Yangon Stock Exchange

Yangon’s Stock Exchange in Comparative Analysis

Abstract

In the political sphere, the citizens of Myanmar have witnessed and taken part in an expanding and deepening process of democratization and political liberalization in the past few years. In the economic sphere, changes are also underway that indicate a growth of economic liberalism. One part of that process is a slowly increasing financialization as indicated by the new Yangon Stock Exchange (YSX) set to begin trading operations in late 2015.

This paper will analyze what this new stock exchange means for the citizens of Myanmar by placing it within a regional comparative analysis of stock markets across Southeast Asia, including the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE), the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), the Lao Securities Exchange (LSX), and the Cambodia Securities Exchange (CSX). The main argument is that despite calculable risks in terms of business transparency and national politics, the potentialities for a successful YSX are in place. The main socioeconomic conditions that warrant investment, both from the domestic as well as international perspective are 1) the depth and diversity of Myanmar’s adult population size, 2) Myanmar’s rallying industrial sector, 3) Burmese businesses’ current lack of bank financing, and 4) Burmese citizens’ little-to-no holdings in financial assets as compared to other non-financial wealth holdings.

The YSX will not be an overnight success for either domestic Burmese investors or for domestic Burmese enterprises seeking new avenues to finance growth and project investment. However, the systemic socioeconomic conditions are in place for the Yangon Stock Exchange to parallel more closely the experience of the Vietnamese HoSE and HNX than that of the other Indochinese exchanges of LSX and CSX.

Keywords: Yangon Stock Exchange, YSX, Myanmar, political economy, finance, wealth

Introduction

For the first time in its nation’s history, Myanmar will soon possess a full-fledged, independent, and computerized national bourse: the Yangon Stock Exchange (YSX). Though a late start has already been announced, a visit to the neoclassical Palladian building on the southeast corner of Sule Pagoda Road and Merchant Street in Yangon, where the old Reserve Bank of India used to issue banknotes during the 1940s, allows one to see the hustle and bustle of construction and renovation—all evidence that a stock market is indeed going up. Entering from the front stairs and into the center of the building, one sees a large square pit in the center of which will be placed a massive LED screen to display trading activities. To the left, a glass-paneled conference room for future investors is being built, whilst to the right, small rooms to be rented for representatives of underwriters, brokers, and advisors are being partitioned. The press corps will also have their own spot in the balcony. And to the very far right, one sees the shell of a future coff ee shop meant as something of a historical tribute and “for good luck since the world’s oldest stock exchange was in a coffee shop.”

But then again, this is just a building. Though it is a good sign that there is active construction, there is nothing here that suggests at first glance that the Yangon Stock Exchange will be a success. Two other grand-looking buildings in Southeast Asia also house exchanges—these are the Lao Securities Exchange (LSX) off Kampheng Meuang Road in Vientiane, Laos; and the Cambodia Securities Exchange (CSX) along Preah Mohaksat Treiyani Kossamak in downtown Phnom Penh, Cambodia. However, neither of these bourses are, by any standard definition, successful stock exchanges. What might indicate that the upcoming YSX will be different?

To varying degrees, other more successful stock exchanges can be cited in Southeast Asia. Examples include, from newest to oldest: the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX); the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE); the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX); the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET); the Singapore Exchange (SGX); Bursa Malaysia (MYX); and the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE). The two exchanges in Vietnam, unlike the neighboring LSX and CSX, are the best example of stock exchanges begun in the twenty-first century that are performing at, and in some ways exceeding, what a successful stock market exchange means for a developing country in Southeast Asia. The HNX and HoSE have become invaluable to both companies and investors of the capital market in Vietnam. What might indicate that the exchange in Yangon will follow the example in Vietnam as opposed to the one in Cambodia or Laos?

This article contends that despite the many challenges facing the introduction of a new stock exchange in Myanmar, the Yangon Stock Exchange will likely have more in common with… [click here to continue to read full text]

*Originally published in Journal of Burma Studies by T. F. Rhoden; image-photo credit for this post via Frontier Myanmar. Unless otherwise stated, all posts on this website are under Creative Commons licence. 

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Serge Pun

Myanmar’s Stock Exchange: Open For Business And Soon To Foreign Investors

…Still, Myanmar had no market infrastructure to speak with, so Daiwa brought in the Japan Exchange Group as a partner, while the Japanese Ministry of Finance helped the Myanmar government draft up a new law to set up the creation of the bourse. According to Masutomo, JPX’s interest in Myanmar was due partly to the fact the Korean Stock Exchange, which had helped set up the Lao and Cambodian exchanges, was so ahead of them in the region.

Today, however, the Lao and Cambodian bourses are seen as a cautionary tale of what the Burmese exchange could become. Skeptics argue that YSX will likely mimic the fate of its neighbors, which both failed to take off after debuting to much acclaim. Each now holds less than 5 stocks.

For T. F. Rhoden, an independent researcher and doctoral candidate at Northern Illinois University, the comparison is misguided, as Myanmar’s population of 54 million people gives it a potential depth of domestic investors that’s much more comparable to Vietnam than Laos or Cambodia. In addition, Myanmar’s $64 billion economy is over three times the size of its smaller neighbors.

The more important lesson from the Lao and Cambodian exchanges is that their failure to enforce strong disclosure procedures and regulation destroyed their credibility. For emerging markets — whether in Asia or elsewhere — the need for international standards of accounting and disclosure is more than ever crucial.

The Yangon Stock Exchange has tried to push for higher standards by asking applicants to appoint compliance officers and set up systems to prevent insider trading, but without stringent regulation of the capital market, it likely won’t be enough.

“The two companies that have listed so far are… [click here to continue to read full text]

*Originally published in Forbes by Fanny Potkin; photo image credit via WTOP. Unless otherwise stated, all posts on this website are under Creative Commons licence.

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Burmese Buddhist Political Thought

A review by T. F. Rhoden of Matthew J. Walton’s Politics in the Moral Universe: Burmese Buddhist Political Thought.

Our cultural upbringing, our mores and customs, our manners and practices, and, in particular, our religion (or lack thereof) constitute that pathology that we often call one’s moral worldview. If, as social scientists or humanities scholars, we accept this much, we may also concede that such a moral worldview might have further consequences on how we think and act in various situations: socially, politically, economically, or otherwise.

Take the case of a religion like Buddhism—or more specifically, “Burmese Buddhism”—as Matthew J. Walton does in his dissertation Politics in the Moral Universe: Burmese Buddhist Political Thought. Does being brought up (indoctrinated?) into something like a contemporary Burmese Buddhist “moral universe” have consequences on how one goes about her politics and politicking? The essential argument of this dissertation is that this “Theravāda view of the universe as governed by moral causal laws has been the primary lens through which Buddhists in Myanmar have thought about and engaged with the political realm”. This moral worldview is not simply how one “thinks” about politics but also how one “engages” with politics.

In short, one’s religious coloring of morality has consequences on the political stage… [click here to continue to read full text]

*Originally published in Dissertation Reviews by T. F. Rhoden; photo credit for this re-post via Political Blindspot. Unless otherwise stated, all posts on this website are under Creative Commons licence. 

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19023

Dataset of Burmese Migration-Concept Crossover in Thailand

Abstract

Purpose of survey: Original dataset of quantitative analysis section of dissertation research for PhD in political science from Northern Illinois University. Estimated graduation date for fall 2016. Others are encouraged to use this dataset for their own research (see license below).

Description

Title: Dataset of Burmese Migration-Concept Crossover in Thailand
Researcher/Author: T. F. Rhoden
Published: 25-Nov-15
Survey period: 20-Jun-15 to 19-Oct-15

Survey location: Thai side of Thailand-Myanmar border (see dataset for specific locations).
Total surveys given out: 4,000
Total surveys answered: 3,784
Response rate: 96.85% (note that response rate will vary per individual question/data point; see dataset).
Original population: 2,629,242 (estimated number of total migrants from Myanmar in Thailand from pg. 9 of Rhoden, T. F., and Danny Unger. 2015. “No Burmese Returning: Economics across Myanmar-Thailand Border.” International Journal of East Asian Studies 19(2): 51-70. http://tinyurl.com/ow4cll7.)

Data points/observations: 50 per respondent (see codesheet).
Survey demographics: See dataset.
Languages: Survey was printed in Burmese and English. Any responses in Burmese were translated into English for ease of use here. See dataset for challenges/issues of some translations. Note that some respondents answered in Karen, which were also translated into English here.
Contact info: tfrhoden [at] niu [dot] edu

License: This dataset is under creative commons license. It is free to use in any way, including, but not limited to, academic research, governmental- and nongovernmental-organization research, journalism, and/or others. Commercial use is prohibited.

Acknowledgements

Part of this survey timeframe overlaps with financial assistance from a Boren Fellowship to learn the Sgaw dialect of the Karen language(s) in Northern Thailand. For volunteer assistance in data collection outside of the refugee camps, author would like to thank Khin Soe Mon, education program manager at Help Without Frontiers (HWF) Thailand, Naing Naing Htun and the team at Burma Migrant Teachers Association (BMTA), along with a handfull of other local Burmese- and Karen-speaking volunteers who wish to stay anonymous. For assistance in data collection inside of the refugee camps, author would like to thank Maria Clara Naranjo, instructor with Karen Refugee Committee Education Entity (KRCEE), and other research assistants who wish to keep their identity anonymous. Author would also like to thank Kyaw (David) Pyae Sone of HWF for helping with translating the Internal Review Board (IRB) forms into Burmese and Ma (Zulu) Khin with the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners Burma (AAPPB) with help in translating the questions on the survey from English to Burmese. Any mistakes are the author’s own.

Suggested Citation

Rhoden, T. F. 2015. “Dataset of Burmese Migration-Concept Crossover in Thailand.” ResearchGate (November 24), doi.10.13140/RG.2.1.3285.6409.

*Originally published on Research Gate by T. F. Rhoden; image credit for post via World Education. Unless otherwise stated, all posts on this website are under Creative Commons licence. 

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Myanmar Needs to Forgive Tax Dodgers

Whether motivated by greed or virtue, granting a one-time tax transparency amnesty to past evaders will help the country’s economic and political transformation.

With the new Yangon Stock Exchange (YSX) set to open in less than five months, now is good time to reflect on, not just the political liberalisation of Myanmar away from military authoritarianism and towards democratisation, but also on the evolution of the economic sphere.

And in particular, increased transparency.

A successful national bourse requires more than a modicum of transparency. “Transparency” itself can mean more than one thing. Openness to outside investigation, whether it be a corporation’s financial statements or a government bureau’s budget, can be a good thing or a bad thing depending on the situation.

However, I argue that there is more good to be had — that is, not just more economic efficiency or effectiveness, but genuine honesty in the development process — if something like a “tax transparency amnesty” for domestic businesses in Myanmar were promulgated by a democratically elected parliament.

We all understand that “politics” and “money” often intersect, particularly at the commanding heights of a national state. Some manifestations of the politics-money nexus are useful whilst others are more than a little depressing; but there is one avatar in particular that is a scourge on Myanmar’s political economy. A tax transparency amnesty could prove analgesic to that still lingering sick-man of Myanmar’s economy: the crony capitalist.

If cronyism between government and businesses is one type of economic activity that could use a dose of transparency, Thomas Fuller’s recent piece in the New York Times is a dismal reminder of another kind of less-than-ideal investor-backing for some of Myanmar’s corporate entities. Illicit trading of items like poppy (now often as methamphetamine), timber, and precious stones are hidden on the former balance sheets of more than a few companies. A tax transparency amnesty could prove useful here as well, helping to highlight wealth and income that is more or less clean (though underreported in the past), whilst also reasserting the illegality of some commercial goods.

But what exactly is a “tax transparency amnesty” and how would it work?

A tax transparency amnesty would be a one-time opportunity for businesses and individuals to declare past hidden income or wealth for an agreed upon fee. Regardless of where the funds came from, all money in the system would be declared white: everyone would get a clean set of books.

The one-time fee would probably be a… [click here to continue to read full text]

*Originally published in New Mandala by T. F. Rhoden; photo credit goes to Dustin Main. Unless otherwise stated, all posts on this website are under Creative Commons licence. white-compass-rose-th